Chasing the Dragon's Tale

Tom Hoffman's spin on where educational technology will be in 2015, Ed-Tech Insider: Ed-Tech 2015, looks at very practical aspects of computing (lower costs, hardware longevity, ease of use) as solutions to resolve the crisis of return on investment (i.e. is learning improving after investing all this money in computer technology?). Although I agree with his assessment that the practical aspects are essential, I must disagree with his vision that technology itself will not change dramatically over the next 10 years. Reality leans towards Tom's view that the PC and the basic functions associated with it (word processing, email, presentations, digital designs, etc.) will remain intact for at least another 10 years. The dreamer in me believes that we will move quicker than anyone realizes toward the world of computer appliances as described in Donald Norman's book, The Invisible Computer. What we are seeing now with the convergence of cell phone technology/pda is only a precursor to smart devices where the technology becomes less of an emphasis and function becomes key. In an Educause event in 2000, someone from MIT's Media Lab spoke of a day when computers will cost a penny... I'm holding on to the Media Lab vision, but with a radically different definition of what 'computer' will mean in 2015.