Here are my predictions for 2006 and beyond:
The economy will continue to grow throughout the year, with most of that growth a result of expansion of the entrepreneurial economy.
- Unemployment in the US will drop well below 5%.
- New job creation will exceed 100,000 jobs per month, which is the number we need to keep up with growth in the work force. Most of this will come from businesses under 500 employees.
- Productivity will continue to improve.
(The one caveat to these economic predictions would be a major "event" in the US related to the War on Terrorism).
The Entrepreneurial Generation (currently 18-27 years old) will begin shape several social and economic trends over the next ten years.
- Large corporations will find the recruiting of management talent to become increasingly difficult as more young people will choose entrepreneurial career paths.
- America will see a major shift to a more libertarian philosophy as the Entrepreneurial Generation pushes for less government involvement in their lives. They will be fighting both the political left and political right on this. Both Republicans and Democrats will fight to keep the massive entitlement programs that give them their power base in place. The traditional right-wing will fight to keep their activist social agenda in place. Given the size and the tenacity of this generation they will prevail in creating the first true fundamental change in the political direction of this country since the New Deal. It will be at least 2010 before this political shift kicks into high gear, but the seeds of this change are already taking place.
- This generation will lead the push for true tax reform in this country by 2011, with the elimination of the current income tax system.
The debate over eminent domain will subside as state governments will curtail its use and local politicians who have abused it will be thrown out of office.
My worst track record for predictions relates to my sports teams, but here they are:
- A major coaching change in Green Bay will lead to the retirement of Farve.
- Kentucky will make it to the regional championships, but will fall just short of making the Final Four.
- Belmont will have three teams qualify for NCAA tournaments in 2006. Both basketball teams and the volleyball team will win their conference tournaments for the automatic bid.
Happy New Year!!
